Should we always predict what is going to happen?
I saved this long ago. Pen Windows was pushed by Microsoft in the early 90s. We were suckered into the business big time - selling with low margins to gain market share. Turns out we gained share in a market that was abandoned by Microsoft. Now "we" are all back at it agin with TabletPCs.
(Click on the image for a readable sized version)
6 comments:
I rather like my tablet PC. It's not as good as it could be - especially the calibration which seems to wander, but I like using it to draw quick diagrams and write notes while I'm watching TV. I also don't type very well so I find the interface a nice change now and then.
So do you predict that tablet PCs will succeed or fail?
I like the idea behind tablet PCs, but I'm really waiting for someone to come up with a better interface. Rather than lugging around a (relatively) large tablet, it would be nice to interact with a lightweight device. Maybe something along the lines of a cellphone that projects a 3D hologram that can be used to obtain user input. This kind of interface could lead to a whole new level of injuries for text messagers (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25934644/").
Will TabetPCs succeed or fail?
What does success or failure mean (what's the metric)?
One thing to consider - look around the classroom. Everyone was given a free TabletPC. How often do you see a pen in someone's hand at school?
Pen input is really good for some things, but even with 100% accurate recognition, text entry isn't one of them.
It is valid to examine the flaws in innovation predictions to avoid expending energy and money on fruitless pursuits.
The Shifting Tides...
The Fortune Sellers mentioned that the game industry took a dive in the 90s with Atari laying off thousands of employees [1]. In recent years, we have seen a dramatic rise in the video game industry thanks to advances in technology (i.e., enhanced graphics, DVDs and low cost electronics).
[1] Sherdan, W. A. (1998). The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
Tablet PCs do seem to be of minimal usefulness, to me anyway. Just a bunch of extra hassle. Actual tablets hooked to a PC for drawing purposes are handy though
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