Following the education trend of other classmate's predictions, here is mine:
Prediction: In 15 years students will have electronic textbooks (which includes a reader)
Factors leading to my prediction:
Mandated material is adding to the amount of content in textbooks, making books bigger.
More graphics are making books bigger.
Bigger books are more expensive to produce and are harder to carry.
Carrying books is necessary because lockers are being eliminated.
States are starting to legislate the maximum weight a student can be required to carry (laws already exist in Georgia and California).
One electronic device that contains all of the material in the textbooks resolves the weight problem.
Electronic textbooks can easily contain graphics, and even richer content such as audio and movies.
The life of a textbook is six or more years.
Textbooks are becoming more "web enabled". Web links in the textbooks lead to rich content on the web, such as animations, audio, and video, that can't be printed.
Electronic textbooks need a way to read them.
Although not as flexible, a dedicated device has the potential to be less expensive than a general purpose computer (such as one laptop per child).
e-book readers are relatively new. The Sony Librié was introduced in 2004.
e-book readers are still expensive. An Amazon Kindle is $359. A Sony Librié is $299.
The population is aging. Older people with grown children are less likely to approve school bond measures and tax increases. Education is already short on cash, and unfounded government mandates, such as no child left behind, means schools will not have ample funding for the foreseeable future (beyond 15 years).
Lack of budget means that there needs to be more price parity between printed and electronic books.
New display technologies are pushing costs down. OLED displays, and electronic ink displays such as Liquavista, show promise for low cost and low power consumption.
Electronic forms of books allow for many disabled students to have access to material through large type or text to speech.
Putting it all together:
There's a lot of reasons to move to electronic textbooks.
Hardware for electronic books is in its infancy, and volume is low, so costs are high.
When the current books are replaced (zero to 6+ years), schools still won't be quite ready to invest, causing them to delay for another book cycle.
Current web augmented books will provide an intermediate step. When the time i ready, publishers will already have content ready to go.
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Liquavista: http://www.liquavista.com/
Association of American Publishers - School Division: http://www.aapschool.org/vp_size.html
Amazon Kindle: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000FI73MA/?tag=googhydr-20&hvadid=1746548141&ref=pd_sl_4usif68krl_e
Sony: http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&categoryId=8198552921644523780
Accessibility: http://www.icdri.org/electronic_textbooks.htm
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4 comments:
I think that we will certainly move in that direction, but I don't think that textbooks will be electronic that quickly.
Perhaps it is just my age, but I find it difficult sitting in front of a machine reading a several hundred page book. I don't have an electronic book reader; I use my PC or PDA for the times I do need to look at content. Plus, I like to make notes, highlight content in my book and physically flip to the page I need.
Younger generations are more technology-oriented than I was going through school, so they are likely able to adapt since they have been exposed to it, but since colleges and universities also deal with non-traditional students, it will be a hard sell in that environment. Being an instructor, I find these students have difficulty navigating their laptops, I don't know if they can handle their books being on that system as well... at least yet.
Ah, I guess I should have been more specific. My prediction is for K-12, not higher ed. In technology years 15 is a long time. Computers will be 64 times more powerful then. And just think back 15 years - what was the status of display technology then? Costs of memory? Power consumption of electronics? I think the technology will be ready well before the adoption tales place (by five or more years).
I think higher ed will skip e-book readers and go with computers, and it will happen more quickly. It's not uncommon for a college to require a computer, and a computer is more flexible.
I believe your prediction is based upon solid research and technological abilities. I do see the implementation of electronic book (e-books) in K-12 but also in High Education. CTU Online and other online Universities are using electronic textbooks beginning at $80 for each required e-book. I am using Safari Books online and books 24x7 in my courses for students to obtain the latest research being published in the areas of programming languages, databases, project management. The books and documentation I find difficult to acquire in the electronic format are detailed writing device drivers, micro controller/processor mathematical and electronic engineering types of textbooks.
I think it's a good call. Since entering the CTU doctoral program and lugging books + notebook PC, I've often wondered when we'd have a softcopy alternative to the pounds of paper. However, I think that the degree of acceptance will be strongly associated with the cost & usability of the electronic devices hosting the texts - economical and as easy to pick up and read as the hardcopy.
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