After searching around for an interesting failed prediction, the one I settled on happened to be in our book.
A committee of the British Parliament in 1878 reported Thomas Edison's ideas of developing an incandescent lamp to be "good enough for our transatlantic friends... but unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men"
Source: Clarke, Arthur C. Profiles of the Future. New York, Harper and Row, 1962. p. 2.
What made this prediction interesting is that even when it was made, there was evidence of benefits of the incandescent lamp. At the time this prediction was made electric light was from carbon arc lamps (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arc_lamp.) These were high maintenance due to the need to constantly adjust them (they eventually became self adjusting, but still needed new carbon rods on a regular basis). Arc lamps were also very bright, so they were suitable for street lamps, but not home lighting. Getting something wrong 20 years out is one thing. Missing a good thing staring you in the face in another.
3 comments:
Just in case you need to see an arc lamp, I made one to show my kids. It uses two carbon rods from the insides of 'D' cell batteries and is powered by one of my welders. It is related t the term 'lime light' which was from the light obtained by burning limes which got transfered to the use of arc lights in the theater - hence 'being in the lime light'.
Is your failed prediction referring to Edison's contribution to the arc lamp or the rejection of it by the British Parliament?
Arc lamps did not survive the silent film era due to the painful glare, leading to the popularity of sunglasses among those early movie stars [1].
[1]Sunglasses. Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunglasses#Modern_developments
Wincoder - that's not what Wikipedia says about Lime Light:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limelight
drc - I was referring to the rejection by parliament. At the same time they are rejecting it they are wearing sunglasses. A different lighting source had obvious benefits - yet they derided it.
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